Competitive Peacekeeping Interventions, State Factionalisation and the Escalation of Organised Violence: the Case of Syria

Abstract This study investigates the paradox of peacekeeping interventions exacerbating conflict intensity, particularly when executed by various competing powers rather than the UN, through the lens of the Syrian conflict. By tracing the causal pathway from intervention to state factionalisation and subsequent violence escalation, we utilise novel data highlighting the impact of corruptive state factionalism on conflict dynamics in Syria. Through qualitative and quantitative analyses, we show that competitive interventions create credible threats and mobilise violence, thus intensifying the conflict. This research underscores the necessity for non-partisan, UN-led peacekeeping efforts to mitigate the adverse effects of competitive interventions in fragile states.