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Evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential variable linking hydrological and ecological processes and is typically modeled as a function of potential evapotranspiration and soil moisture in traditional hydrological models. However, commonly used empirical ET models typically do not recognize the underlying vegetation dynamics. This can have implications when models are extrapolated under future climate change. In this study, the traditional HYMOD-BVM (THV) eco-hydrological model is adopted as a benchmark model. A modified HYMOD-BVM (MHV) is developed using an actual ET substitute for the traditional PET input to consider vegetation dynamics under climate change. The THV and MHV models are compared to evaluate how streamflow (Q) and leaf area index (LAI) vary under future climate in the Florentine River (FR, energy-limited) catchment and Murray River (MR, water-limited) catchment in Australia. Six global climate models (GCMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are bias-corrected and employed in the calibrated THV and MHV models, and ensemble mean results are analyzed. Results suggest that the streamflow projected by the MHV model tends to be higher than that from the THV model, while LAI presents an opposite trend. The energy-limited catchment appears more susceptible to climate change whereas larger vegetation effects are seen in the water-limited catchment. Overall, our research highlights the effects of evapotranspiration on future climate change scenario analysis and prompts the need for the development of spatial and temporal continuously accurate ET models for both current and future climates.
Zhou et al. (Sat,) studied this question.