Dynamic model in analyzing Indonesia’s agricultural sector’s macroeconomic performance

Indonesia, an emerging archipelagic nation, possesses abundant natural resources spanning marine, land (including forests and water sources), and diverse biological riches. The agricultural sector emerges as a pivotal driver of growth across the country, exhibiting extensive distribution. Consequently, there is an urgent imperative for comprehensive research to bolster and optimize the performance of this sector. This study aims to meticulously analyze and scrutinize macroeconomic variables aimed at enhancing Indonesia’s agricultural sector. Through the utilization of a dynamic panel model, the study zeroes in on crucial variables: economic growth in the agricultural sector, farmer terms of exchange, human development index, population density, inflation, average daily wages, and lagged economic growth data from each province in Indonesia. The best model for dynamic panel testing, employing both First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD-GMM) and Generalized Method of Moments System (SYS-GMM) approaches, is identified as the SYS-GMM model. This model exhibits unbiased and consistent estimation, as evidenced by the Arellano-Bond (AB) test and Sargan test results. The analysis conducted using this selected model reveals notable findings. Lagging agricultural sector performance, human capital measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), and farmers’ exchange rates are found to significantly and positively influence the economic growth of the agricultural sector. Conversely, inflation exerts a significant and negative impact on sectoral growth. However, wage levels and population density do not demonstrate a significant partial effect on the economic growth of the agricultural sector.