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Expressway systems play a vital role in facilitating intercity travels for both passengers and freights, which are also a significant source of vehicle emissions within the transportation sector. This study investigates vehicle emissions from expressway systems using the COPERT model to develop multi-year emission inventories for different pollutants, covering the past and future trends from 2005 to 2030. Thereinto, an integrated SARIMA-SVR method is designed to portray the temporal variation of vehicle population, and the possible future trends of expressway vehicle emissions are predicted through policy scenario analysis. The Jiang–Zhe–Hu Region of China is taken as the case study to analyze emission control in expressway systems. The results indicate that (1) carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) present a general upward trend primarily originating from passenger vehicles, while nitrogen oxides (NOx) and inhalable particles (PM) display a slowing upward trend with fluctuations mainly sourcing from freight vehicles; (2) vehicle population constraint is an effective emission control policy, but upgrading the medium- and long-haul transportation structure is necessary to meet the continuous growth of intercity trips. Expressway vehicle emission reduction effectiveness can be further enhanced by curtailing the update frequency of emission standards, along with the scrapping of high-emission vehicles.
Chen et al. (Mon,) studied this question.