Prospects for Israelis returning to the north are dim

Significance Washington and others are engaged in intensive mediation to prevent all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah. The former insists it can fight on two fronts but there are doubts about its ability to do so. Perhaps tellingly, it is not planning to reopen northern schools in September. Impacts The November elections will limit US willingness to confront Iranian support to non-state actors in the region. Washington will press Israel against targeting Beirut and Lebanese state infrastructure because of the likely Hezbollah reaction to that. The Lebanese economy will suffer further, with reports that flights to Beirut are being cancelled as a result of the recent incident.