Analysis of ecological vulnerability and driving factors in the context of global climate change: A case study of Himalayan transboundary landscape

Abstract Under the dual influence of global climate change and human activities, the carrying capacity and buffering capacity of the Himalayan transboundary alpine ecosystem are being severely tested. This study focused on the transboundary nature reserves and national parks located in the Himalayas, which include Qomolangma National Nature Preserve, Manaslu Conservation Area, Langtang National Park, Gaurishankar Conservation Area, Sagarmatha National Park, Makalu Barun National Park and Kanchenjunga Conservation Area. Specifically, based on the analysis of land use changes and landscape pattern characteristics during 2000, 2010, and 2020, the main influencing factors of the landscape pattern changes were explored. Additionally, the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) model was further utilized to construct the ecological vulnerability assessment system. The results indicated that: 1) The land use types in the study area have undergone changed, with notable changes observed in bare land and construction land. Glacier to bare land (512.00 km2), bare land to glacial or water area (127.49km2, 114.33 km2), shrub to construction land (72.91 km2), and water area to bare land (69.89 km2) were the main types of land transformation in this area. 2) The fragmentation level of ecological landscape types showed a trend of initial increase followed by decrease. The patch dominance of bare land was much higher than that of other land types, and the fragmentation degree was lower on the north slope than on the south slope. 3) From a temporal perspective, the regional ecological vulnerability was decreased. From a spatial perspective, the ecological vulnerability of the southern slope was generally lower than that of the northern slope, indicating a better ecological environment on the south slope. 4) The annual mean temperature, population density, and annual precipitation are the main factors affecting PD; annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are the main factors affecting LPI; annual precipitation, NDVI, and slope are the main factors affecting LSI; annual precipitation and slope are the main factors affecting CONTAG; annual precipitation, NDVI, and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) are the main factors affecting SHEI. This study focused on the landscape pattern and ecological vulnerability around the world's highest peak, Mount Everest. Providing a typical sample for transboundary cooperation in ecological conservation areas in the Himalayan region and better promoting sustainable development in transboundary areas.