Land use evaluation and capacity assessment for sustainable urban physical development: case of study Ahvaz city

Abstract Land use evaluation and capacity assessment for sustainable urban development in Ahvaz city has become crucial due to rapid urban expansion negatively impacting current and future development. Urban population growth and resource demands have led to a decline in environmental quality. Over the past decades, Ahvaz has identified potential areas for future expansion until 2030. This study assesses the city's physical expansion and spatial development patterns, aiming to identify optimistic future development scenarios. Emphasizing balanced and equitable development, the study focuses on suitable areas, environmental preservation, pollution reduction, and mitigating urban hazards . Various factors, including land use, soil type, vegetation density, landform, groundwater level, geology, and distances from railways, industries, roads, hinterland cities, water networks, faults, and the city itself, are considered. Three decision-making methods—logic, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and integrated Fuzzy-AHP—are applied to map urban physical development. Fuzzy logic, AHP models, Expert Choice, Arc GIS software, and a land fit zoning map are used for data analysis. The AHP assesses the factors' relative importance, followed by standardization based on fuzzy set theory. Criteria factors are then combined using AHP and fuzzy logic to generate a land suitability map. The study identifies five zones for Ahvaz's future development—very high, high, medium, low, and very low—based on their physical expansion potential. The third scenario, supported by maps, indicates favorable conditions for future development in the northwest and southwest zones, considering environmental characteristics, infrastructure, and land continuity.