Carbon Balance Zoning and Spatially Synergistic Carbon Reduction Pathways—A Case Study in the Yangtze River Delta in China

The concept of major function-oriented zones is highly compatible with the idea of spatially synergistic carbon reduction. In this study, 2005–2020 is taken as the research period, and 305 counties in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region are taken as the research unit. The S0M-K-means clustering model and GeoDetector are adopted on the basis of carbon emission/absorption accounting to analyse the spatial and temporal variations in the carbon balance in the YRD region. Furthermore, carbon balance zoning and influencing factors are analysed. Then, a regional spatially synergistic carbon reduction pathway is proposed. The results show that carbon absorption in the YRD region struggles to offset carbon emissions; the regional carbon imbalance is gradually becoming worse; and each county’s carbon emission/absorption shows a significant spatial imbalance. Optimised development zones and key development zones are high-value agglomerations of carbon emissions, while the main sources of carbon sinks in the YRD region are the key ecological functional zones. The YRD region has 87 high carbon control zones, 167 carbon emission optimisation zones, and 51 carbon sink functional zones, which are further subdivided into 9 types of carbon balance zones in accordance with the major function-oriented zones (MFOZs). Based on the driving factors of carbon balance changes in the YRD region, this study proposes differentiated spatially synergistic carbon reduction paths for each zone in accordance with the carbon balance zones. As the Yangtze River Delta is an essential engine for China’s economic development, the study of its carbon balance is highly relevant in formulating differentiated low-carbon development pathways for each functional zone and promoting regional spatially synergistic carbon reduction to realise the target of “dual-carbon” development.