Multi Scenario Simulation of Land Use in Chaohu Lake Basin Based on PLUS Model

Land is the fundamental resource upon which human survival depends.Research on land use change coverage (LUCC) is crucial for predicting the future development of human society.This study focuses on the Chaohu Lake Basin as the research area and selects three-time nodes to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces of LUCC in the Chaohu Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020.Three scenarios were established: natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), and cultivated land protection (CP).The LUCC of Chaohu Lake Basin in 2030 was simulated by the PLUS model CARS module.Conclusion: (1) More than 95% of the land types are woodland, urban land, cultivated land, and water bodies.From 2000 to 2020, 562.1634 km² of cultivated land decayed and 544.9752 km² of urban land expanded, with land transfers primarily occurring between farmland and urban land.(2) The accuracy validation results of the PLUS model show an overall accuracy as high as 95.27% and a kappa coefficient of 0.9182, meeting the requirements for land use simulation and prediction.(3) Annual precipitation and population are the main drivers of changes in urban land and arable land.(4) A comprehensive comparison of LUCC simulation results under three scenarios shows that the expansion of urban land is restricted under the CP scenario while also ensuring the total amount of farmland.This research provides a scientific basis and a decision-making reference for local government land resource development and optimization.