Data-driven time series forecasting of offshore wind turbine loads

Abstract Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks (LSTM) are used to build surrogate models to forecast time-series blade loads for both fixed and floating offshore wind turbines. In this paper, we train surrogate models on datasets generated with OpenFAST on the IEA-15MW-RWT under a range of metocean conditions. The aim of the surrogate models is to generate load forecasts inexpensively and accurately such that they can be used in a model predictive controller. Two cases are investigated with different model inputs: one with only measurements available to typical PI controllers and another one with additional wave elevation and deflection measurements (alongside the endogenous variable). The model performances are evaluated and compared. It was found that for the fixed turbine, the models predicted all three blade loads to a high degree of accuracy. The floating turbine surrogate models performed relatively worse, but edgewise and pitching moments are still reasonably accurate. The surrogate model forecasts the flapwise moment to a satisfactory accuracy only in 58% out of 400 test cases. The addition of wave elevation and blade deflection features did not significantly improve the prediction performance of the surrogate, demonstrating that just the information used by current PI controllers may be sufficient for forecasting blade loads.