Key points are not available for this paper at this time.
In the months leading up to the 2022 midterms, Republicans believed a variety of factors were working in their favor including inflation and overall state of the economy, redistricting, and Biden's low levels of public approval. After the electoral dust settled, Republicans won a narrow majority in the House, but actually lost a seat in the Senate. Why did Republicans fail to fully capitalize on the specific midterm conditions that historically have favored the out-party? This paper examines the results of the 2022 primary and general elections, identifies electoral trends and themes, and considers the implications of the results in terms of prior congressional election research. Based on aggregate election data and survey-based evidence, it appears that former President Trump's enduring shadow over the midterms and the Supreme Court's decision in the Dobbs case hindered the Republicans' ability to win a larger share of seats in Congress.
Carson et al. (Tue,) studied this question.