Predictive modeling of multi-class diabetes mellitus using machine learning and filtering iraqi diabetes data dynamics

Diabetes is a persistent metabolic disorder linked to elevated levels of blood glucose, commonly referred to as blood sugar. This condition can have detrimental effects on the heart, blood vessels, eyes, kidneys, and nerves as time passes. It is a chronic ailment that arises when the body fails to produce enough insulin or is unable to effectively use the insulin it produces. When diabetes is not properly managed, it often leads to hyperglycemia, a condition characterized by elevated blood sugar levels or impaired glucose tolerance. This can result in significant harm to various body systems, including the nerves and blood vessels. In this paper, we propose a multiclass diabetes mellitus detection and classification approach using an extremely imbalanced Laboratory of Medical City Hospital data dynamics. We also formulate a new dataset that is moderately imbalanced based on the Laboratory of Medical City Hospital data dynamics. To correctly identify the multiclass diabetes mellitus, we employ three machine learning classifiers namely support vector machine, logistic regression, and k-nearest neighbor. We also focus on dimensionality reduction (feature selection—filter, wrapper, and embedded method) to prune the unnecessary features and to scale up the classification performance. To optimize the classification performance of classifiers, we tune the model by hyperparameter optimization with 10-fold grid search cross-validation. In the case of the original extremely imbalanced dataset with 70:30 partition and support vector machine classifier, we achieved maximum accuracy of 0.964, precision of 0.968, recall of 0.964, F1-score of 0.962, Cohen kappa of 0.835, and AUC of 0.99 by using top 4 feature according to filter method. By using the top 9 features according to wrapper-based sequential feature selection, the k-nearest neighbor provides an accuracy of 0.935 and 1.0 for the other performance metrics. For our created moderately imbalanced dataset with an 80:20 partition, the SVM classifier achieves a maximum accuracy of 0.938, and 1.0 for other performance metrics. For the multiclass diabetes mellitus detection and classification, our experiments outperformed conducted research based on the Laboratory of Medical City Hospital data dynamics.