Research on the income and expenditure forecast of long-term care insurance fund in Shihezi City based on community care

Objective This study forecasts the income and expenditures of the long-term care insurance fund, provides a basis for formulating the raising standard of the long-term care insurance fund, and explores the measures to improve the pilot work of long-term care insurance. Methods By using the exponential smoothing and ARIMA models to forecast the income and expenditure of the old-age care insurance fund in 2022, the problems existing in the operation of the long-term care insurance fund are discussed. Results In 2022, the income of the old-age insurance fund was 28.8934 million yuan, and the fund compensation expenditure was 28.4070 million yuan, with a slight balance of the fund. The highest relative errors of income and expenditure forecast models are −2.03% and − 2.76%, respectively. According to the results of fund expenditure, the annual financing standard should be 132.93 yuan/person, and the individual financing standard should be 66.47 yuan/person. Conclusion Through the integration of personal payment, welfare, sports lottery public welfare income, social donations, and other ways, we can gradually establish a multi-channel risk-sharing financing. We will appropriately raise the standard for individual financing and the annual contribution standard for individuals from 50 yuan to 66.47 yuan. This will promote sustainable development of long-term insurance system.