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Abstract Background: In Mongolia, a shortage of healthcare professionals, who play a key role in delivering healthcare, has been identified as a major medical issue. To address this issue, it is necessary to ensure that the strategic development of healthcare human resources aligns with the increasing population and morbidity rates. To facilitate effective planning, a system dynamics model was developed to predict the future demand and supply for healthcare specialists in Mongolia. Methods: We obtained data on the number of residency training specialists recruited from 2014 to 2020. The causal loop diagram of the Mongolian healthcare human resources model is described. It comprises a total of five causal links, three of which are positive and two of which are negative. The resource and flow diagram depicts the inputs, outputs, and accumulation of resources. The main goal of the model is to calculate the future demand for specialists in two scenarios: the total number of specialists and the number of necessary specialists. The total number of specialists is calculated based on the "Current Workforce" submodel and the "Medical Education" submodel. Results: Projections indicate an anticipated shortage of 226 specialists by 2030. A strategic 17.5% increase in the number of residency training entrants by 2023 effectively addresses this gap, with a full workforce fulfillment expected by 2026. Conclusions: A shortage of healthcare professionals is observed in Mongolia. Our results suggest that the streamlined way to strategically plan healthcare human resources effectively. A well-structured admission process for residency training indicates that the fulfillment of the demand for specialists will commence by 2026.
Samdankhuu et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
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