Creating inequality in access to public transit? Densification, gentrification, and displacement

Densification is a key concept in contemporary urban planning. Yet, there are widespread concerns about densification causing displacement and gentrification. This paper examines densification around train stations—a prevalent form of transit-oriented development (TOD) in cities with established public transit systems—in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland. We assess the effects of densification around train stations on the socioeconomic population composition in these areas and investigate three different potential displacement effects. Leveraging 1.8 million linked person-housing unit observations for all individuals within our study perimeter, we provide a more nuanced understanding of densification’s effects on the population composition and displacement than prior research. Our findings reveal that even though densification increases the absolute number of low-income residents, it primarily benefits middle- and high-income households. Specifically, there is a decline in the share of low-income residents, attributed to the influx of younger high-income individuals. Moreover, incumbent low-income residents experience an increased risk of direct displacement due to housing demolitions. These outcomes highlight the limitations of TOD strategies in mitigating persistent socioeconomic disparities in public transit access, emphasizing the need for more comprehensive measures to address the challenges of equitable housing and public transit accessibility.