Serum electrolyte concentrations and risk of atrial fibrillation: an observational and mendelian randomization study

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent arrhythmic condition resulting in increased stroke risk and is associated with high mortality. Electrolyte imbalance can increase the risk of AF, where the relationship between AF and serum electrolytes remains unclear. Methods A total of 15,792 individuals were included in the observational study, with incident AF ascertainment in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cox regression models were applied to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for AF based on different serum electrolyte levels. Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed to examine the causal association. Results In observational study, after a median 19.7 years of follow-up, a total of 2551 developed AF. After full adjustment, participants with serum potassium below the 5th percentile had a higher risk of AF relative to participants in the middle quintile. Serum magnesium was also inversely associated with the risk of AF. An increased incidence of AF was identified in individuals with higher serum phosphate percentiles. Serum calcium levels were not related to AF risk. Moreover, MR analysis indicated that genetically predicted serum electrolyte levels were not causally associated with AF risk. The odds ratio for AF were 0.999 for potassium, 1.044 for magnesium, 0.728 for phosphate, and 0.979 for calcium, respectively. Conclusions Serum electrolyte disorders such as hypokalemia, hypomagnesemia and hyperphosphatemia were associated with an increased risk of AF and may also serve to be prognostic factors. However, the present study did not support serum electrolytes as causal mediators for AF development.