Exploring the Philippines’ Evolving Grand Strategy in the Face of China's Maritime Expansion: From the Aquino Administration to the Marcos Administration

This article explores the Philippines’ evolving and changing grand strategies in confronting China's maritime expansion in the South China Sea. From 2010 to 2016, under the Aquino administration, the Philippines challenged China's extensive claim over the disputed waters by adopting a hard-balancing approach. In 2016, the succeeding Duterte administration pursued an appeasement policy; in 2018, it shifted to a limited hard balancing policy because of (a) continuing Chinese coercive actions against Armed Forces of the Philippines units in Philippines-occupied land features in the South China Sea and (b) China's failure to deliver on its promised public investments in the country's infrastructure building programme. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr initially adhered to his predecessor's strategy of limited hard-balancing. Seeing no change in China's stance on the maritime issue, he resorted to a hard-balancing policy. He has vigorously supported the steady modernisation of the Philippine military and strengthened the country's defence ties with the United States and other like-minded security partners while maintaining cordial diplomatic and economic relations with China. This article argues that the Philippines’ evolving grand strategy has the following elements: (a) Admitting that China's maritime expansion is the quintessential threat to Philippine national security; (b) pursuing a policy of maintaining the status quo in the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea; (c) acknowledging the urgency to shift the focus of the Philippine military from internal security to territorial defence; and (d) fostering its alliance with the United States and its security partnerships with other American allies and partners.