Prognostic Factors for Severe-to-Fatal Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

The prognostic factors associated with severe-to-fatal post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) remain unclear despite the extensive number of studies on PEP. In total, 3739 ERCP patients with biliary disease with an intact papilla and indicated for ERCP were prospectively enrolled at 36 centers from April 2017 to March 2018. Those with acute pancreatitis diagnosed before ERCP, altered gastrointestinal anatomy, and an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status > 4 were excluded. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed on patient-related factors, operator-related factors, procedure-related factors, and preventive measures to identify potential prognostic factors for severe-to-fatal PEP. Multivariate analyses revealed pancreatic guidewire-assisted biliary cannulation (OR 13.59, 95% CI 4.21-43.83, p < 0.001), post-ERCP non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) administration (OR 11.54, 95% CI 3.83-34.81, p < 0.001), and previous pancreatitis (OR 6.94, 95% CI 1.45-33.33, p = 0.015) as significant risk factors for severe-to-fatal PEP. Preventive measures included endoscopic biliary sphincterotomy (EST; OR 0.29, 95% CI, 0.11-0.79, p = 0.015) and prophylactic pancreatic stents (PPSs; OR 0.11, 95% CI, 0.01-0.87, p = 0.036). In biliary ERCP, pancreatic guidewire-assisted biliary cannulation, NSAID administration after ERCP, and previous pancreatitis were risk factors for severe-to-fatal PEP, whereas EST and PPS were significant preventive measures for severe-to-fatal PEP.