Purpose: To assess the current and future supply and demand for oculoplastic surgeons in the United States and evaluate whether the current number of fellowship positions aligns with projected workforce needs. Methods: Ophthalmic Plastic Surgeons (OPS) were identified using the American Academy of Ophthalmology membership directory. Each OPS’s age was estimated based on the year of medical school graduation. Three retirement models were used, assuming average retirement ages of 62, 65, and 69. These projections were compared with the number of graduating fellows. United States Census Bureau population forecasts were used to calculate future OPS-to-population ratios for 2033, 2043, and 2053. Results: In 2023, an estimated 735 OPS were practicing, yielding a ratio of 1 OPS per 455,000 people. If 57 fellowships are maintained, the projected ratio in 2033 will be 1 OPS per 449,000 people, assuming an average retirement age of 69. Conclusions: Maintaining the current number of fellowships will sustain the 2023 OPS-to-population ratio through 2033. A slight oversupply is expected thereafter, helping to offset earlier retirements and to meet the rising demand for ophthalmic plastic surgery in the aging US population.
Jason T. Yarter (Tue,) studied this question.