The January 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor examines how IEEPA fertilizer tariffs affected U. S. agricultural input markets through revenue generation, trade adjustment, and price pass-through, while also assessing broader trade and logistics developments. IEEPA tariffs collected an estimated 958 million from agricultural input imports between February and October 2025, including about 110 million from fertilizers, a modest share relative to overall production costs. Despite exemptions, seasonal timing, and trade diversion toward tariff-exempt suppliers, fertilizer imports, particularly DAP and MAP, declined sharply, while nitrogen products accounted for most tariff revenue. Fertilizer prices rose substantially during the tariff period, with U. S. -Canada price differentials exceeding 170/MT and pass-through rates surpassing 100 percent, indicating that market uncertainty and supply chain disruptions amplified costs beyond the tariff itself. Following the November tariff rollback, wholesale fertilizer prices adjusted rapidly, but retail prices have remained sticky, leaving farmers with elevated costs into early 2026. Beyond input markets, the late-2025 Mississippi River lows produced limited disruptions, with barge rates, grain movements, and basis spreads showing no severe transportation stress. Chinese soybean buying also remains on pace to meet the 12 MMT purchase commitment despite U. S. soybeans trading at a significant premium to Brazilian supplies, supporting cautious optimism amid ongoing adjustment frictions and policy uncertainty.
Arita et al. (Thu,) studied this question.