A Hybrid VMD-SSA-LSTM Framework for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on Wind Farm Measurement Data

Aiming at the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of wind speed series, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. First, VMD is employed to adaptively decompose the original wind speed series into multiple Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) with distinct frequency features, thereby reducing the non-stationarity of the original sequence. Second, SSA is utilized to adaptively optimize key parameters of the LSTM network, including the number of hidden units, learning rate, and dropout rate, to enhance the model’s capability in capturing complex temporal patterns. Finally, the predictions from all modal components are integrated to generate the final wind speed forecast. Experimental results based on 10-min resolution measured data from a coastal wind farm in southeastern China in June 2020 show that the model achieves a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.208, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.161, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 3.284% on the test set, with its comprehensive performance significantly surpassing benchmark models such as LSTM, VMD-LSTM, MLP, XGBoost, and ARIMA. The limitations of this study mainly include the use of only one month of data for validation, the lack of segmented performance analysis across different wind speed regimes, and a fixed prediction horizon of 10 min. The results indicate that the proposed hybrid forecasting framework provides an effective approach with practical engineering potential for ultra-short-term wind power prediction.