Lake Evolution and Emerging Hazards on the Tibetan Plateau from 2014 to 2023

Climate-induced lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has led to two distinct hazard types: outburst floods and passive inundation. However, the divergent driving mechanisms behind these hazards remain insufficiently understood. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal trends of 1352 non-glacial lakes (>1 km2) on the TP from 2014 to 2023 using high-resolution Gaofen-1 (GF-1) and Gaofen-2 (GF-2) imagery. By integrating geomorphic analysis with hazard mechanisms, we screened and categorized lakes prone to outburst floods and inundation using a classification and assessment framework proposed in this study. The results indicate that the net area of these lakes expanded by 2839.53 km2 (6.07%), with the Inner TP Basin contributing the largest absolute area gain (1960.60 km2). We identified 21 potentially hazardous lakes (10 outburst-prone and 11 inundation-prone) and systematically categorized them by risk level. Field investigations of high-risk candidates, such as Rulei Co and Xiao Qaidam Lake, validated the accuracy of the hazard classification and risk assessment methodology. Preliminary attribution analysis further suggests that the two hazard types may be associated with distinct climatic factors. Overall, this study provides a scientific basis for disaster mitigation and lake management on the TP.