Why QAOA Depth Fails on Current Hardware: A Mechanism Analysis for Fault Tree QUBO Instances

This paper analyzes why increased QAOA circuit depth does not improve sampling outcomes on contemporary superconducting hardware. Using a fixed experimental corpus of 60 fault tree QUBO instances spanning problem sizes N = 12, 16, 20, 24, 28, and 32, we evaluate ibmₜorino executions at depths p = 1 and p = 2 with 8, 192 shots per circuit, for 120 circuit publications total. We connect canonical distribution metrics from the companion limits study—including maximum probability, Shannon entropy, and top-10 mass—to circuit-level indicators derived from archived circuit renderings. Across all problem sizes, increasing depth from p = 1 to p = 2 does not yield consistent concentration gains. The median improvement is exactly zero for all three metrics; mean changes are three orders of magnitude below the shot-noise scale. Entropy remains close to the theoretical maximum of log₂ (8192) ≈ 13 bits, indicating noise-dominated operation. Circuit-level analysis reveals that all 10 circuits within each job share identical structure, with no depth-dependent structural diversification observed. These results support a mechanism-level interpretation: additional depth increases circuit exposure to hardware noise without producing usable structure in the sampled distribution under the studied compilation and device conditions. This paper provides audit-ready tables and figures linking depth study outcomes to circuit-level characteristics while keeping claims strictly within empirical behavior for this backend, circuit family, and execution configuration.