The use of NWP model output in the prediction of significant weather events

The current generation of numerical weather prediction models is capable of providing a diverse varlet) of forecasting guidance derived objectively from the model output. These range from quantities immediately available, such as maximum and minimum temperatures, regions of strong winds or large temperature gradients, through to derived quantities such as frontogenesis functions and indices of severe weather. Hitherto, little usage has been made of this forecasting guidance, particularly in the Australian context. In this paper, as a first attempt to redress that situation, the full range of forecasting guidance quantities currently available from the new Australian region primitive equations (ARPE) model is discussed, and two case studies are presented to illustrate the possible value of these quantities in particular synoptic situations.