Spatiotemporal trends and vulnerability assessment of climatic change in the Himachal Himalaya (1901–2014)

AbstractMountain regions such as the Himachal Himalaya are among the most climate-sensitive zones on Earth, where even minor shifts in temperature and precipitation can trigger cascading impacts on hydrology, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. This study presents a century-scale assessment (1901–2014) of seasonal trends in precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperatures across physiographic zones of Himachal Pradesh, using the CRU TS v3.23 dataset and elevation referencing via SRTM DEM. Trends were examined at state, zonal, and district levels, and integrated with a vulnerability index framework based on the IPCC’s exposure–sensitivity–adaptive capacity model. Results reveal a pronounced altitudinal signature: the Shiwalik foothills exhibit the steepest declines in monsoon (-15.5 mm decade-1) and winter precipitation (–5 mm decade-1), exposing downstream communities to creeping water insecurity. Concurrently, winter minimum temperatures rise most rapidly above 2,000 m (+0.15 °C decade-1), threatening snowpack stability and accelerating glacier retreat. Spatial analyses further show that cold-season extremes are diminishing across all elevations, with significant implications for snowmelt timing and alpine hydrology.The vulnerability index underscores stark contrasts across districts: Una and Solan demonstrate low vulnerability due to moderate exposure and strong adaptive capacity, whereas Mandi and Chamba emerge as high-risk zones owing to compound climatic stress and limited resilience buffers. Notably, Kinnaur–despite extreme exposure–maintains only moderate vulnerability through exceptional ecological and infrastructural assets. These findings highlight the urgent need for elevation-sensitive adaptation strategies–from off-farm livelihoods and clean energy in the drying lowlands to glacier monitoring and ecosystem-based resilience in the warming high Himalaya–providing an evidence-based roadmap for climate-resilient development across Himalayan landscapes.