Abstract Intermittently sunlit areas near the lunar south pole are estimated to harbor thermal conditions permitting long‐term stability of water ice and other volatiles. They are targets for future science and exploration missions due to the combination of sunlight availability for solar power generation, and the possibility for extraction of volatiles for scientific analysis and ISRU. We construct a geodatabase of spatially co‐registered remote sensing and thermal model results, and perform a probabilistic analysis to determine the likelihood of successfully landing and operating on such locations for a quadrangular study area that bounds the 80°S parallel. In addition to water ice thermal stability, we consider factors relevant for the operation of solar‐powered landed spacecraft: visibility to the Earth, visibility to the sun, and local slope. For two scenarios representing sets of most‐ and least‐constrained landing site requirements, we find that circular landing ellipse diameters of ∼0.9 and 2.6 km, respectively, would allow to target available compliant terrains with 100% success. We quantify the reduction in success probability with increasing landing ellipse size. Further, we explore the distributions of geometric properties of compliant areas, and identify three sites of interest that support large areas of compliant terrain: near De Gerlache crater, near Shackleton crater, and Mons Mouton (informally named as Leibnitz‐β massif). This study is provided to support planning for future lunar missions.
Sefton‐Nash et al. (Sun,) studied this question.