Evaluation of Multi-Hazard Probability Due to Earthquake and Heavy Rain Under Present and Future Climate Using Long-Term Earthquake Occurrence Time-Series Analysis Method and D4pdf

Key Points

• The research aims to assess the risk of multi-hazard occurrence due to earthquake and heavy rain considering climate change impacts.
• Utilized long-term earthquake occurrence data for inland and trench-type earthquakes.
• Developed a time-series analysis method for seismic intensity using past earthquake data.
• Evaluated heavy rain occurrence under current and future climate using the D4PDF model.
• Calculated multi-hazard occurrence probability across four river basins in the Tohoku region.
• Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of heavy rain events.
• An associated increase in multi-hazard occurrences was observed.
• Improving river management levels could significantly reduce multi-hazard incidents.