We propose an effective Markovian coarse-grained cosmological framework in which large-scale information dynamics are driven by non-equilibrium fluctuations. Non-equilibrium is quantified by the dimensionless temperature fluctuation intensity phi (t) = (Delta T (t) / T (t) ) ². We model dissipation as proportional to this intensity under cosmological coarse-graining. Identifying the effective baseline rate with the Hubble expansion rate H (t), we obtain a cosmological update frequency alpha (t) = H (t) phi (t). The framework combines variational free energy, Fisher information geometry, and an effective Lindblad-type evolution to connect probabilistic mismatch, dissipation, and cosmic expansion. At late times, the model yields a parameter-free prediction alphaₒbs = H0 phiₒbs, where phiₒbs is determined directly from the observed CMB angular power spectrum. This proposal establishes a minimal observationally anchored relation between cosmological expansion and effective information-dynamical evolution within a coarse-grained Markovian description.
Kiichi Yamada (Sat,) studied this question.