Analysis of the evolution and spatial effects of green space pattern in China’s urbanization process: a case study of Guangzhou City

During rapid urbanization, the total area of green space in Guangzhou remained relatively stable; however, its spatial structure changed substantially. Green space became increasingly fragmented, patch shapes grew more complex, and overall connectivity declined, indicating a systematic degradation of green space structure rather than a simple reduction in area. Land-use transition analysis shows that the continuous conversion of farmland and grassland into construction land was the dominant process driving green space fragmentation during the study period. This suggests that urban expansion primarily reshaped the internal configuration of green space instead of directly reducing its total extent. Spatial econometric results reveal significant spatial dependence in green space dynamics, as indicated by a positive and significant spatial lag coefficient in the spatial Durbin model, highlighting strong interregional interactions. Further decomposition of spatial effects indicates heterogeneous driving mechanisms: urbanization intensity, measured by nighttime light intensity, exerts a negative indirect effect, whereas population density and per capita GDP exhibit positive direct and indirect effects. Overall, the results support a "development pressure-ecological response" mechanism, in which urban expansion generates structural degradation and negative spatial spillovers, while socioeconomic agglomeration may, under certain conditions, produce compensatory or synergistic effects on regional green space systems.