Multi-Phase Demand Modeling and Simulation of Mission-Oriented Supply Chains Using Digital Twin and Adaptive PSO

Mission-oriented supply chains involve multi-phase tasks, strong resource interdependencies, and stringent reliability requirements, which make demand planning complex and uncertain. This study develops a structured demand modeling framework to support multi-phase mission-oriented supply chains under budget and reliability constraints by integrating digital twin technology with an adaptive inertia weight particle swarm optimization (AIW-PSO) algorithm. The supply support process is decomposed into four sequential phases—storage, transportation, preparation, and execution—and phase-specific demand models are constructed based on system reliability theory, explicitly incorporating redundancy, maintainability, and repairability. In this work, digital twin technology functions as a data acquisition and virtual experimentation layer that supports parameter calibration, state-aware scenario simulation, and event-triggered re-optimization rather than continuous real-time control. Physical-state updates are mapped to model parameters such as phase durations, failure rates, repair rates, and instantaneous availability, after which the integrated optimization model is re-solved using a warm-start strategy to generate updated demand plans. The resulting multi-phase demand optimization problem is solved using AIW-PSO to enhance global search performance and mitigate premature convergence. The proposed method is validated using a representative mission-oriented supply support scenario with operational and simulated data. Simulation results demonstrate that, under identical budget constraints, the proposed approach achieves higher mission completion capability than conventional PSO-based methods, providing effective and practical decision support for multi-phase mission-oriented supply chain planning.