The interaction and evolution of tourism destination tripartite systems from CAS and TALC perspectives: Insights based on explainable machine learning

Exploring the complex relationships among elements within tourism systems holds significant importance for the sustainable development of tourism destinations. However, traditional tourism research often fails to capture the nonlinear dynamics in destination evolution. By integrating Complex Adaptive Systems theory with the established Tourism Area Life Cycle model, we construct a ternary system framework that examines the interactions among tourism resources, tourism support, and tourism response. This framework is empirically tested using a comprehensive panel dataset from 2013 to 2023 for the Guangdong-Fujian-Zhejiang Coastal Urban Agglomeration. By combining principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and an XGBoost-SHAP model, we elucidate the complex and nonlinear contributions of various influencing factors. The results yield several crucial insights. First, the interaction between the tourism resource and support subsystems follows a complex adaptive process of "independence-coupling-decoupling". This nonlinear trajectory fundamentally shapes the phased characteristics and generative mechanisms of the tourism response, challenging deterministic stage-based progression. Second, the synergy between the intrinsic appeal of the resource subsystem and the robustness of the support subsystem jointly establishes the foundational capacity for attracting tourist flows and stimulating consumption. Third, empirically, the Guangdong-Fujian-Zhejiang Coastal Urban Agglomeration tourism landscape exhibits a clear, staged progression, yet this is accompanied by significant spatial differentiation and ongoing structural optimization among its constituent cities. Based on these findings, this study argued that destination strategies must be dynamically calibrated to their specific evolutionary, aligning with the "independence-coupling-decoupling" path. This requires a strategic shift in focus: from initially building foundational elements, to fostering synergistic linkages during the "coupling" stage, and ultimately to driving innovation within the support system in the "decoupling" phase. Furthermore, destinations are advised to cultivate a multi-dimensional cultural tourism product system by deeply integrating non-traditional experiential elements to unlock new potential in both tourist flows and consumption. Ultimately, this research contributes a new analytical paradigm for understanding and managing the complex dynamics of tourism destinations.