Background: Early research involvement during medical training may influence several dimensions of future academic development of which scholarly productivity is one measurable component. This study evaluates whether publication activity during residency, including authorship role, journal impact, and mentor H-index, predicts long-term scholarly productivity among orthopaedic surgery trainees. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 112 orthopaedic surgery residents at a single academic institution was conducted. Resident publication metrics, including total publications, first-author contributions, and senior author H-index, were collected and correlated with postresidency academic output using bibliometric databases. Pearson and Spearman correlations, analysis of variance, and multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of long-term scholarly productivity. Results: Research productivity during residency significantly predicted future scholarly output. Residents with more publications during training had higher postresidency publication counts (r = 0.483, p < 0.001) and H-indices (r = 0.470, p = 0.0004). First-author publications during residency independently predicted postresidency productivity (B = 11.21, p < 0.001), as did coauthorship (B = 9.60, p < 0.001), together explaining 67.4% of the variance in total publications (R 2 = 0.674). In addition, mentorship by senior authors with higher H-indices was moderately correlated with future output (r = 0.368, p < 0.001). Conclusion: First-author publication experience during residency and mentorship by academically productive faculty are predictors of long-term scholarly success. These findings underscore the importance of structured research opportunities, with an emphasis on meaningful authorship, and high-impact academic mentorship in training programs to foster future productive orthopaedic surgeons. Level of Evidence: Level III . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
Ahmad et al. (Thu,) studied this question.