ABSTRACT The eDelphi method has gained popularity with trichologists in the recent past with the aim to produce consensus statements on different topics. The Delphi technique takes its name from the Greek god Apollo Pythias who, as master of Delphi, was renowned for his ability to predict the future. It is a method for the systematic collection and aggregation of informed judgments from a group of experts on specific issues. However, by their nature, Delphi studies rely purely on expert opinion to generate findings while expert opinion is generally of a low level of evidence. The Delphi technique’s claim to validity, in its ability to examine and accurately reflect the subject under study, would seem to be strong. If the panelists participating in the study can be shown to be representative of the group or area of knowledge under study, then content validity can be assumed. The practice though, within the Delphi technique of selecting “experts” instead of a random sample on the premise that they will yield significantly better and substantially different responses from non “experts,” means there is a responsibility to prove and justify the selection procedures used. Hence, how an expert is defined must be somewhat arbitrary, and the results would then represent that particular group’s opinions at a given point in time. We value too highly information that fulfills our desires and fail by confirming what we expect to find by selectively accepting or ignoring information. The true expert although having learned about bias and search satisfaction, consciously tries to keep his mind open so that he sees beyond the availing preconceptions. Ultimately, what we truly can take home from the oracle of Delphi are the maxims: know thyself, nothing to excess, and surety brings ruin.
Ralph Michel Trüeb (Tue,) studied this question.