A global analysis of expected revenues from carbon dioxide removal

Abstract Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) must scale rapidly to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. This scale-up requires substantial investment in the CDR industry, underpinned by stable revenues. While various different revenue streams are conceivable, and academic literature proposes diverse interventions to support CDR, we lack an empirical understanding of revenue expectations from the actors that develop and deploy CDR solutions. Drawing on 50 structured interviews with senior leaders from companies headquartered in 17 countries who develop CDR projects in 52 countries, here we assess expected revenue streams across different permanent CDR solutions. While voluntary carbon markets dominate in 2024, compliance markets are expected to become the main revenue source by 2030 already, particularly through the opening of cap-and-trade systems for removals. Direct subsidies are mainly important for immature technologies. By considering differences in expected revenues across CDR solutions and geographies, policy mixes can be designed to effectively support investment and scale-up in the heterogeneous CDR industry.