ABSTRACT Himalayan river basins are highly vulnerable to global warming particularly in glacier‐ and snow‐fed regions like the upstream Teesta River Basin. This study investigates the spatio‐temporal impacts of future climate scenarios on hydro‐sedimentological processes using the SWAT model coupled with CMIP6 projections under four emission pathways (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5). Temporal trends and scales of key hydro‐sedimentological variables were assessed using the Mann‐Kendall test and Sen's slope while spatial variability was analysed using model outputs to comprehend how climate signals manifest across different parts of the basin. Both precipitation and temperatures are projected to rise significantly with more intense changes under high‐emission scenarios by the late 21st century. Minimum temperatures are expected to increase more swiftly than maximum depicting a strong warming trend. Southeastern and western regions, already wetter, may see further increases in water availability through enhanced precipitation, lateral flow and groundwater recharge. Valley reaches with stronger surface runoff generate higher sediment loads, indicating that runoff plays a central role in sediment transport. Across scenarios, streamflow, water yield and sediment yield increase by about 0%–29%, 4%–40% and 10%–91%, with the largest changes under SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. Lower‐emission pathways show smaller early changes, but impacts grow over time. An expansion of moderate to high rainfall areas may raise flood and erosion risk, creating added pressure for water and sediment management. The novelty of this study lies in its integrated approach by combining recent climate projections with high‐resolution modelling and spatial–temporal analysis in the data‐limited Himalayan region. The study also provides a framework that can be applied to other cryospheric basins around the world. This makes it highly relevant for global assessments of climate‐driven risks to water and sediment.
Lepcha et al. (Sun,) studied this question.
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