Factors associated with university dropout intention among health sciences students: the mediating role of academic burnout and satisfaction with education

University dropout in health sciences programs threatens the stability of the future healthcare workforce, particularly in Latin American public universities facing structural and institutional constraints. Dropout intention is a strong predictor of actual dropout and reflects the interaction of personal, relational, and institutional factors. However, integrative models that examine these factors simultaneously and their mediating mechanisms remain limited. This study aimed to evaluate an explanatory model of university dropout intention among health sciences students, considering the mediating role of academic burnout and satisfaction with education. A cross-sectional observational study was conducted between March and September 2025 among undergraduate health sciences students at a public university in Cali, Colombia. A proportionate stratified random sample was obtained. Data were collected using validated self-report instruments assessing personal, relational, and institutional risk factors, academic burnout, satisfaction with education, and university dropout intention. Structural equation modeling was applied using the weighted least squares mean and variance adjusted (WLSMV) estimator to examine direct and indirect (mediated) effects. The sample comprised 320 undergraduate health sciences students (69.1% female; mean age = 22.46 ± 3.47 years). The final structural model demonstrated adequate fit and explained 86.3% of the variance in university dropout intention. Academic burnout emerged as the strongest predictor of dropout intention, whereas satisfaction with education showed a significant protective effect. Several personal, relational, and institutional factors were directly and indirectly associated with dropout intention. Dysfunctional support networks and vocational decision-making were positively associated with dropout intention directly and through academic burnout and satisfaction with education, whereas curricular support and functional support networks were negatively associated with dropout intention primarily through higher satisfaction with education. University dropout intention among health sciences students is a multidimensional phenomenon mediated by personal, relational, and institutional factors. Interventions aimed at enhancing satisfaction with education and preventing academic burnout are essential to strengthen student retention and well-being in health sciences education.