This work introduces Energy Decision Physics (EDP), a mathematical and governance-oriented framework designed for evaluating high-capital energy investments under conditions of financial uncertainty, geopolitical instability, regulatory complexity, and logistical constraints. Traditional project evaluation in energy infrastructure typically relies on financial metrics such as Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). While these tools remain essential, they are insufficient when decision environments include large irreversible capital commitments, geopolitical chokepoints, regulatory uncertainty, and volatile energy markets. Energy Decision Physics proposes a unified analytical structure that integrates financial performance metrics with structured multi-domain risk modeling. The framework combines capital expenditure dynamics, geopolitical exposure, regulatory compliance risk, logistics constraints, financing fragility, uncertainty modeling, and irreversibility analysis into a single decision function. The model introduces a risk-governed decision architecture in which investment outcomes are evaluated not only by expected return but also by systemic risk exposure and the structural reversibility of the investment decision. The framework defines a unified decision score that balances financial benefit against multi-layer risk and irreversibility penalties, producing structured decision regimes such as approval, hold, or rejection. A stochastic simulation layer based on large-scale Monte Carlo analysis is incorporated to model uncertainty across market prices, construction delays, geopolitical shocks, logistics disruptions, and financing conditions. This simulation environment enables probabilistic evaluation of investment outcomes and stress-testing of infrastructure projects under extreme but plausible scenarios. The framework is designed to support governance-first decision systems in which analytical models assist human decision-makers rather than replace them. The system therefore preserves Human-Final Authority, ensuring that artificial intelligence functions as a structured analytical tool rather than an autonomous decision-maker. Energy Decision Physics can be applied to a wide range of energy infrastructure decisions, including LNG terminals, energy storage facilities, maritime energy logistics, cross-border pipelines, and strategic energy corridors. The framework provides a theoretical and operational foundation for decision infrastructure systems capable of managing the complex, irreversible, and risk-intensive nature of global energy investments. This work contributes to the emerging field of energy decision infrastructure, combining elements of energy economics, risk mathematics, geopolitics, and governance-oriented decision science into a unified analytical model.
YASIN KALAFATOGLU (Mon,) studied this question.