Abstract This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) locations between 1950 and 2024, focusing on both spatial and temporal patterns. The analysis draws on comprehensive track data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), for both landfall and no landfall events, to identify long-term trends in spatial patterns and explores associations between TC activity and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Results indicate significant variability in TC frequency and intensity at both annual and decadal timescales, with the Western Pacific (WP) basin exhibiting the highest concentration of TCs. Notably, there have been marked shifts in TC clusters over time and across different basins, which are associated with changing environmental factors like sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions. The study utilizes Emerging Hot Spots Analysis (EHSA) and Optimized Hot Spots Analysis (OHSA) to delineate persistent, diminishing, and intensifying clusters, underscoring significant heterogeneity and trends in hot and cold spot patterns worldwide. The findings also highlight shifting spatial clustering patterns, particularly in relation to ENSO. For instance, TC landfall frequency increased in the North Atlantic (NA) and Southern Indian (SI) Ocean during La Niña years (at 95% confidence level), while El Niño years experienced more activity in the North Indian (NI) and Eastern Pacific (EP) basins (at 99% confidence level). Considerable temporal and spatial variability in uncertainty is observed in tropical cyclone track locations across different basins. The findings underscore the necessity of devising region-specific adaptation and risk management strategies, acknowledging the complex and evolving threats presented by tropical cyclones in the context of a warming climate. Graphical Abstract The graphical abstract above presents an in-depth analysis of the basin-level occurrences of tropical cyclones’ landfall and no landfall during a 75-year period (1950-2024). Both landfall and non-landfall events were most frequent in the Western Pacific Basin, followed by followed by the Northern Indian Ocean, Southern Indian Ocean, and North Atlantic basins. Geostatistical analysis techniques were applied to identify spatial patterns and trends in tropical cyclones globally. Emerging hot spots analysis indicated intensified activity in the Western Pacific Basin, while sporadic or cold spots in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Furthermore, notable differences in the frequency of tropical cyclones were recorded between various phases of ENSO. As shown above landfall events were significantly higher during the La Niña phase of ENSO over the Caribbean Basin Sea and Gulf of America. Thus, in summary the long-term spatial patterns of the tropical cyclones show significant spatial heterogeneity across the different basins.
Shouraseni Sen Roy (Tue,) studied this question.