Against the macro-background of balancing development and food security strategies, China has implemented a land-use regulation system centered on farmland protection. However, the economic impacts of such regulation lack sufficient quantitative evaluation. Using farmland retention targets at the county-level in the administrative region and combining them with relevant data, this study employs an Intensity Difference-in-Differences (Intensity DID) approach to examine how land-use regulation affects county-level economic growth and convergence. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between land-use regulation and county-level economic growth, suggesting that, at the current stage, the intensity of land-use regulation generally promotes economic growth. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that county economies in major grain production areas (MGPAs) and main grain-producing counties (MGPCs) experience stronger negative constraints related to the policy, while MGPCs in non-major grain production areas (non-MGPAs) are most sensitive to land-use regulation. China’s county economies exhibit convergence; however, land-use regulation may reduce the growth rate of counties that were underdeveloped in the base period, thereby widening inter-county development disparities. This divergence is manifested in the lack of convergence between the clubs of MGPCs and non-MGPCs. Mechanism analysis suggests that differences in industrial structure, capital investment, and fiscal expenditure constitute the key focal points for addressing the issue. Policy implications indicate that China should strengthen land-use regulation on the premise of rationally determining the functions and scale of various land types, continue to advance market-oriented reforms of land factors, improve the vertical and horizontal interest compensation mechanism for MGPAs, and stimulate the endogenous development momentum of these regions.
Li et al. (Tue,) studied this question.