What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to assess the macro-level impacts of climate change on drought phenomena using specific experimental data.

March 14, 2026Japanese Journal of JSCE0 citations

MACRO-EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHTS USING WBC-d4PDF5km (2022)

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SNSorin NISHIMURAMinistry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism NTNozomu TakadaTohoku Institute of Technology KSKoji SakamotoNagoya University Hospital

Key Points

This research aims to assess the macro-level impacts of climate change on drought phenomena using specific experimental data.
Utilized WBC-d4PDF5km (2022) for analysis.
Conducted experiments for past conditions, 2°C rise, and 4°C rise.
Calculated frequency of dry years, annual precipitation/evapotranspiration, and water resource availability.
Analyzed trends in drought flow under different climate scenarios.
Increased frequency of dry years, with lower probability scales exhibiting higher rates.
Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend, while annual evapotranspiration increased; annual water resource availability decreased.
Drought flow trends showed increased frequency, intensity, duration, and simultaneity of droughts.

Abstract

気候変動による渇水への影響のマクロ的評価のため，WBC-d4PDF5km(2022)を用いて，過去実験，2℃上昇実験，4℃上昇実験における，(1)少雨年の発生頻度，(2)年積算降水量・年蒸発散量・年水資源賦存量，(3)渇水流量の変化傾向を計算した．その結果，気候変動によって，(1)少雨年の発生頻度は，確率規模がより低頻度になるほど増加傾向となること，(2)年積算降水量・年蒸発散量・年水資源賦存量は，それぞれが減少傾向，増加傾向，減少傾向となること，その中で，降水パターンが極端化すること，(3)渇水流量は，頻度・流量・継続性・同時生起性のいずれの観点からも渇水傾向となることが確認された．これらの結果は，一部の水系での異なる傾向に留意する必要があるものの，気候変動による渇水への影響に適応するためのマクロ的な政策を進める上で，一定の論拠になるものと考える．

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Cite This Study

NISHIMURA et al. (Wed,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b4fbb1b39f7826a300c0cb https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejj.25-27035

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