Methodological Evaluation of Secondary Schools Systems in South Africa Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Efficiency Measurement

This study addresses a current research gap in Computer Science concerning Methodological evaluation of secondary schools systems in South Africa: time-series forecasting model for measuring efficiency gains in South Africa. The objective is to formulate a rigorous model, state verifiable assumptions, and derive results with direct analytical or practical implications. A structured analytical approach was used, integrating formal modelling with domain evidence. The results establish bounded error under perturbation, a convergent estimation process under stated assumptions, and a stable link between the proposed metric and observed outcomes. The findings provide a reproducible analytical basis for subsequent theoretical and applied extensions. Stakeholders should prioritise inclusive, locally grounded strategies and improve data transparency. Methodological evaluation of secondary schools systems in South Africa: time-series forecasting model for measuring efficiency gains, South Africa, Africa, Computer Science, conference paper This work contributes a formal specification, transparent assumptions, and mathematically interpretable claims. Model estimation used =argmin_ᵢ (yᵢ, f_ (xᵢ) ) +₂², with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.