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To improve the reliability and reduce the maintenance cost of transformer oil, a life prediction of transformer oil is needed so that the maintenance of transformer can be performed correctly. However, it is difficult to predict the reliable lifetime of transformer oil accurately because of its unkind operating condition at different environments. To solve this problem, based on the theory of accelerated life testing (ALT), a reliability assessment method for transformer insulating oil on a normal operational conditions is proposed. An inverse power Weibull distribution model for insulating oil lifetime with voltage is built. Numerical procedure of model parameter estimation is presented, the variances of model parameters and reliability indices, which including mean lifetime, reliability, reliable lifetime at given reliability and failure rate, are derived. The feasibility and correctness of the proposed method are validated by real lifetime data of transformer insulating oil in literature. The reliability of transformer insulating oil used at normal usage conditions are predicted by the proposed method, and the point and interval estimations of reliability indices are evaluated. The results show that reliable lifetime and mean lifetime under reliability limit should be considered simultaneously in repair or replacement of transformer insulating oil.
Wei et al. (Thu,) studied this question.