Predicting Successful and Unsuccessful Transitions from School to Work by Using Sequence Methods

Summary Policy makers recognize the importance of identifying early young people who are likely to end up jobless on entry to the adult labour market. This paper uses sequence techniques to characterize 712 young peoples’ transitions from school to work into ‘types’, with jobless types interpreted as unsuccessful transitions. A logit model is estimated for transition type using a collection of static individual, family and school characteristics. This allows us to identify which young people are most likely to experience unsuccessful transitions into the adult labour market. Policy makers might use such information to target social and educational policy more effectively to promote social inclusion.