Transitions in complex systems are commonly approached as problems of prediction, state estimation, or external forcing. However, a fundamental aspect remains insufficiently understood: the dynamical conditions under which transitions become possible. This work introduces a general structural mechanism for regime transitions based on the temporal dynamics of fluctuation amplitude. Rather than focusing on absolute system states, the analysis reveals that transitions are systematically associated with increases in the rate of change of fluctuation amplitude, interpreted as a signature of ongoing structural reorganization. Using a unified data-driven framework applied across multiple classes of systems—including financial time series, climatological data, and network-like processes—we demonstrate a robust and consistent pattern: transition probability increases monotonically with fluctuation amplitude change. This relationship is observed across multiple amplitude estimators, remains stable under bootstrap resampling and parameter variation, and disappears under permutation-based randomization, confirming its structural origin. Crucially, fluctuation amplitude change does not act as a precise temporal predictor of individual events. Instead, it defines transition regimes—extended intervals of elevated dynamical susceptibility within which regime transitions become significantly more likely. This regime-based perspective contrasts with point-based prediction approaches and supports an interpretation of transitions as distributed processes of structural reorganization. The results indicate that fluctuation amplification provides a general, system-independent dynamical signature of decreasing stability and increasing transition susceptibility. By capturing the conditions under which transitions become dynamically accessible, this framework offers a complementary perspective to existing approaches and contributes to a more unified understanding of transition dynamics in complex systems.
Josef Piskač (Sun,) studied this question.