Psychosocial acceleration theory (PAT) posits that harsh and unpredictable ecologies during childhood can cue humans into developing earlier and more frequent reproduction. This study tested whether variables measuring harsh and unpredictable circumstances in 4,135 Brazilian municipalities and in 2,763 US counties would predict reproductive behavior 10 to 14 years later. Data was extracted from the Brazilian Census and American Community Survey samples. A secondary analysis explored whether the percentage of visible minorities (Black and Indigenous population) would also be a predictor or mediator of the same outcomes. Partial least squares structural equation modeling and multivariate linear regression were used in the analysis of Brazil and US data, respectively. Municipalities with higher rates of lack of resources, with young mothers both married or separated, and with large families with many residents per room were predictive of higher rates of teenage and young adult mothers and of young children in Brazil. Harshness predicted the percentage of young children in US counties, but the direction of this association was mixed. Some findings were contrary to PAT predictions. Divorce rates were negative predictors of reproduction in both countries. Education and employment indicators were not significant predictors of reproduction in Brazil. Higher rates of perceived minorities were not a relevant predictor in Brazil, and they were a negative predictor of the percentage of children in the United States. Findings suggest that harsh ecologies and the proportion of children in the population impact patterns of reproduction a decade later.
Koehler et al. (Wed,) studied this question.