Comparative Evaluation of Deep-Learning and SARIMA Models for Short-Term Residential PV Power Forecasting

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of residential energy systems and microgrids, as reliable short-term predictions enable improved energy scheduling, demand management, and operational planning in distributed energy environments. In this study, one-hour-ahead forecasting of residential PV power generation is investigated using real-world data collected from multiple households within an Irish energy community. Several deep-learning architectures, including long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), convolutional neural networks (CNN), CNN–LSTM hybrid networks, and attention-based LSTM models, are evaluated and compared with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) statistical model. A sliding-window approach is employed to transform the PV time series into a supervised learning problem. To ensure statistical robustness, deep-learning models are evaluated using a multi-run framework, and results are reported as mean ± standard deviation based on MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R2 metrics across multiple households. The results indicate that deep-learning models achieve consistently strong forecasting performance, with GRU frequently providing the most reliable predictions across several households. For instance, in House 5, GRU achieved an RMSE of 142.02 ± 1.87 W and an R2 of 0.694 ± 0.008, while in Houses 11 and 13 it attained R2 values of 0.837 ± 0.002 and 0.835 0.08, respectively. However, performance varied across households, reflecting the influence of data variability and generation patterns on model effectiveness. In comparison, the SARIMA model demonstrated competitive performance and, in certain cases, outperformed deep-learning models. For example, in House 4, it achieved the lowest RMSE of 90.68 W and the highest R2 of 0.709. Overall, these findings highlight that while deep-learning models offer greater adaptability and stability, statistical models remain effective for more regular PV generation patterns. Consequently, the study emphasizes the importance of evaluating forecasting models under realistic household-level conditions and demonstrates that both deep-learning and statistical approaches can provide short-term PV forecasting.