GDP measures economic motion. Small states collapse not from insufficient motion but from breached constraints. This paper introduces the Sovereign Capability Index — an original metric developed at Cedratech Consulting Services Ltd. — to measure what GDP cannot: whether a small state can survive when external financing tightens. Building on earlier analytical work (Tayeh, 2026), this paper develops the theoretical architecture, full index methodology, and an empirical application to Lebanon across three benchmark years, with a comparative case covering Sri Lanka. A Botswana comparative exercise demonstrates the index's capacity to differentiate across the viability spectrum, not only to identify post-hoc failure. An institutional adoption pathway is appended as a companion note.
Elias Tayeh (Thu,) studied this question.
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