Decision Sovereignty

This monograph develops the concept of decision sovereignty as a structural variable governing the translation of decisions into realised outcomes in complex institutional environments. While advances in data, analytics and artificial intelligence have significantly expanded predictive capacity, improvements in decision quality have not consistently translated into improved performance. The framework proposed here addresses this gap by distinguishing between decision capability and the capacity of institutions to execute, sustain and revise decisions under conditions of uncertainty, contestation and stress. The central formulation, Y = d(P) ⋅ S, expresses realised outcomes as a function of decision quality, d(P), and decision sovereignty, S, interpreted as the transmission capacity of the institutional environment. The analysis shows that where decision sovereignty is weak, improvements in decision quality yield limited effect, and under certain conditions may contribute to adverse outcomes. This reframing positions execution not as an operational detail but as a primary determinant of institutional performance. Building on this foundation, the monograph introduces the Decision Sovereignty Index (DSI) as a structured approach to assessing execution capacity across dimensions of authority, control, execution-relevant information and veto exposure. The framework integrates insights from institutional economics, organisational theory and public administration, and situates decision sovereignty as a form of institutional capital subject to accumulation and depreciation. The work is intended as a conceptual and analytical contribution. It offers a coherent framework for diagnosing execution constraints in public and private organisations and provides a foundation for further empirical investigation and practical application in policy design and organisational reform.