Unilateral dam construction in West Africa and its implications for water insecurity and regional instability

Water resource competition is emerging as a major driver of regional instability, particularly in West Africa, where climate change and drought exacerbate scarcity. The construction of the Kandadji Dam by the Niger Republic on the River Niger, despite pre-existing water-sharing agreements with Nigeria, exemplifies how unilateral control over transboundary water resources can heighten international tensions. This study examines the implications of the dam’s construction on water security, regional stability, and potential conflict, while also exploring its prospects for fostering economic integration and peacebuilding between Nigeria and Niger. Drawing on water security theory, the research combines a systematic literature review with secondary data analysis from past agreements, policy papers, reports from international organizations, and published articles. The findings reveal that while the Kandadji Dam holds promise for addressing Niger’s energy needs and agricultural productivity, it poses significant threats to Nigeria’s water security, hydroelectric infrastructure, and livelihoods dependent on the River Niger. Furthermore, the dam’s unilateral construction risks intensifying drought-induced vulnerabilities and escalating socio-political tensions. The study concludes that although water conflicts rarely trigger wars, poor management and competition over scarce water resources exacerbate instability in fragile regions.