Strategic Calculations in a Multipolar Era: RCEP and the Emergence of an HIO in the Asia-Pacific

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) constitutes a major development in Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation. While frequently characterized as a mega-trade agreement, this article argues that RCEP functions as a hybrid institutional arrangement shaped by trade rationalization, strategic risk management, and flexible governance practices. Based on qualitative analysis of agreement texts, negotiation documents, national policy materials, and relevant literature, the study shows how RCEP consolidates overlapping regional trade frameworks, supports economic hedging amid intensifying great-power rivalry, and institutionalizes Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)’s norms of inclusivity, consensus, and flexibility. Rather than reflecting hegemonic leadership or fixed geopolitical alignment, RCEP represents a negotiated outcome among fifteen diverse economies seeking economic stability, autonomy, and resilience under multipolar conditions. The analysis demonstrates differentiated effects across participants; lower-income ASEAN members benefit from expanded market access and value-chain participation, while middle and advanced economies utilize RCEP to stabilize production networks and manage strategic uncertainty. The article contributes to debates on contemporary regionalism by illustrating how economic cooperation can be sustained through pragmatic institutional design in a fragmented global environment. JEL Classification F15, F02, O19